jnraajan
06-05 02:25 PM
It is December 1st not November 30th.
http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php
Actually, It has to before Dec Ist, so technically, you should have closed the house at least on Nov 30th.
http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php
Actually, It has to before Dec Ist, so technically, you should have closed the house at least on Nov 30th.
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fide_champ
04-05 10:54 PM
Jang.Lee,
I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.
Please check your PM.
Land cannot be manufactured. The population is growing by the day and people need a place to live. So the space is at a premium here. The housing market maybe down because of the sub-prime crisis and the banks going out of business. But eventually it has to come back. Maybe this market is not for people who are looking to invest.
Look at india for instance: whatever state the economy is in, the housing always booms because of the supply/demand factor. Eventually US will reach that stage unless otherwise the population shrinks.
I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.
Please check your PM.
Land cannot be manufactured. The population is growing by the day and people need a place to live. So the space is at a premium here. The housing market maybe down because of the sub-prime crisis and the banks going out of business. But eventually it has to come back. Maybe this market is not for people who are looking to invest.
Look at india for instance: whatever state the economy is in, the housing always booms because of the supply/demand factor. Eventually US will reach that stage unless otherwise the population shrinks.
Waitingnvain
01-30 10:24 PM
I have been trying to access the report that Lou Dobbs alluded to in his program. Did anybody find the report. In any case we should counter his BS with facts and send it to CNN.
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desi3933
08-06 10:47 AM
I agree with "singhsa".
I was reading through this thread and couldn't help replying.
Before i voice my opinion, i would like to mention that I have a Ph.D in Aerospace Engineering (2002-2006 from a very reputed univ. in the US). My husband's employer (non-IT) had applied for his GC in EB3 - in 2005 which makes sense since the job required a B.S (Even though he was MS and was working for this company since 2002). We have our 485s filed and are using our APs/EADs. Now, i haven't applied for GC through my employer yet, but if i apply, it would most likely be EB1 or 2, and would love to port my PD of 2005. The reason i haven't done that is because i personally do not think that getting a GC couple of years earlier is going to make my life any different than it currently is.
....
.....
Just FYI..
One can NOT claim PD recapture based on spouse's earlier PD.
Person can claim earlier PD only based on his/her earlier approved I-140.
______________________________
US Permanent Resident since 2002
I was reading through this thread and couldn't help replying.
Before i voice my opinion, i would like to mention that I have a Ph.D in Aerospace Engineering (2002-2006 from a very reputed univ. in the US). My husband's employer (non-IT) had applied for his GC in EB3 - in 2005 which makes sense since the job required a B.S (Even though he was MS and was working for this company since 2002). We have our 485s filed and are using our APs/EADs. Now, i haven't applied for GC through my employer yet, but if i apply, it would most likely be EB1 or 2, and would love to port my PD of 2005. The reason i haven't done that is because i personally do not think that getting a GC couple of years earlier is going to make my life any different than it currently is.
....
.....
Just FYI..
One can NOT claim PD recapture based on spouse's earlier PD.
Person can claim earlier PD only based on his/her earlier approved I-140.
______________________________
US Permanent Resident since 2002
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rajuseattle
07-15 01:58 AM
Rajuram,
The petition you are asking us to sign doesnt have legal standings. It doesnt have any strong argument to change USCIS's interpretation of allocating the spill over VISA numbers.
Instead we should all focus our enrgy in getting Rep Lofgren's bill for recapturing the wasted VISA numbers.
IV has launched the initiative by sending the Petition/letter to your local US congress reps and senators.
IV petition is urging US congress and senate to consider Rep Lofgren's imigration relief bills for the legal immigrants, which will recapture the wasted VISA numbers and they are in the range of about 200,000, this will be good to retrogressed countries. Apart from IV their are other pro legal immigrant lobbiests who are working hard to get these pro legal immigration relief bills passed this year, but due to slowing economy anything US congress wants to do for immigration relief comes under scrutiny by anti-immigration forces and they try to kill these relief bills, on the other hand their are some groups in US congress and senate who wants the amnesty for all illegal immigrants and they are strongly opposing any kind of relief just to legal immigrants.
Its a long battle ahead of us, and hope staying together and working with IV will help us rather than having war of words between EB-3 I and EB-2 I.
Current letter writen by pani is inappropriate and it doesnt make our case strong.
For Pani too, I am perosnally not against him, we all are frustrated with this GC situation, but unless USCIS gets more VISA numbers from congress, they can not do anything.
I guess illegal immigrant lobby and some of the anti immigrant forces in Washington DC are strong enough and at this time they are influencing the law makers to not pass any pro legal immgrant relief.
Our only hope is if IV succeed in getting some relief from US congress...or at some point the nurses from india and phillipines stop consuming the EB-3 quota. Remember when we were all stuck in the state employment agencies and DOL backlog centres, they were allowed to file I-140 without labor certifications and they were the major beneficary for some of the recaptured VISA numbers and the July 2007 VB fiasco when USCIS approved some unprecedented EB-3 India VISA numbers.
The petition you are asking us to sign doesnt have legal standings. It doesnt have any strong argument to change USCIS's interpretation of allocating the spill over VISA numbers.
Instead we should all focus our enrgy in getting Rep Lofgren's bill for recapturing the wasted VISA numbers.
IV has launched the initiative by sending the Petition/letter to your local US congress reps and senators.
IV petition is urging US congress and senate to consider Rep Lofgren's imigration relief bills for the legal immigrants, which will recapture the wasted VISA numbers and they are in the range of about 200,000, this will be good to retrogressed countries. Apart from IV their are other pro legal immigrant lobbiests who are working hard to get these pro legal immigration relief bills passed this year, but due to slowing economy anything US congress wants to do for immigration relief comes under scrutiny by anti-immigration forces and they try to kill these relief bills, on the other hand their are some groups in US congress and senate who wants the amnesty for all illegal immigrants and they are strongly opposing any kind of relief just to legal immigrants.
Its a long battle ahead of us, and hope staying together and working with IV will help us rather than having war of words between EB-3 I and EB-2 I.
Current letter writen by pani is inappropriate and it doesnt make our case strong.
For Pani too, I am perosnally not against him, we all are frustrated with this GC situation, but unless USCIS gets more VISA numbers from congress, they can not do anything.
I guess illegal immigrant lobby and some of the anti immigrant forces in Washington DC are strong enough and at this time they are influencing the law makers to not pass any pro legal immgrant relief.
Our only hope is if IV succeed in getting some relief from US congress...or at some point the nurses from india and phillipines stop consuming the EB-3 quota. Remember when we were all stuck in the state employment agencies and DOL backlog centres, they were allowed to file I-140 without labor certifications and they were the major beneficary for some of the recaptured VISA numbers and the July 2007 VB fiasco when USCIS approved some unprecedented EB-3 India VISA numbers.
dpp
05-16 12:18 PM
US congress cannot force investors to invest money only in US and get work done only in US.
Its not possible for US Government to ban outsourcing. The only thing they can do is create incentives to limit outsourcing. However, if a company still wants to outsource jobs overseas, Congress cant do ANYTHING about it.
I heard sometime back that some states banned Outsourcing of govt work. Is it not correct?
Its not possible for US Government to ban outsourcing. The only thing they can do is create incentives to limit outsourcing. However, if a company still wants to outsource jobs overseas, Congress cant do ANYTHING about it.
I heard sometime back that some states banned Outsourcing of govt work. Is it not correct?
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sk2006
06-05 03:24 PM
don't think the rent will be much lower than paying the mortgage, it is true atleast in the city where I live. For example: If I am paying a mortgage of $1200 and the rental of an equivalent is $ 900, the $300 difference you get back in tax refund at the end of the year. So why pay rent when I can buy a house and do whatever I want to with it ?
Where I live, the median house price is 200,000. I bought a house which is lower than the median and when the market was on the downward trend (september 2006). If you look at the post I quoted, you would notice that I am not subscribing to the crazies who bought houses with the example dollar amounts you gave. If you know your limits and do 2 hours of internet research, then the person probably will make a much better decision. The information and warning signs were there everywhere starting 2005, if people chose to ignore and got burned then shame on them.
You are right. As I mentioned in my other post buying makes sense if Rent and mortgage are comparable. I would do the same when mortgages and rents come in line in my area.
With the ratio of rent/mortgage you mentioned, it makes perfect sense to buy.
Where I live, the median house price is 200,000. I bought a house which is lower than the median and when the market was on the downward trend (september 2006). If you look at the post I quoted, you would notice that I am not subscribing to the crazies who bought houses with the example dollar amounts you gave. If you know your limits and do 2 hours of internet research, then the person probably will make a much better decision. The information and warning signs were there everywhere starting 2005, if people chose to ignore and got burned then shame on them.
You are right. As I mentioned in my other post buying makes sense if Rent and mortgage are comparable. I would do the same when mortgages and rents come in line in my area.
With the ratio of rent/mortgage you mentioned, it makes perfect sense to buy.
2010 Business is all about people,
eager_immi
02-02 12:22 PM
this info is for lou dobbs and he can search for this information in Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (for all the middle-class that can get free information, most likey coded by an H1B)
[edit] Taxation status of H-1B workers
H-1B workers are legally required to pay the same taxes as any other US resident, including Social Security and Medicare.[2] Any person who spends more than 183 days in the US in a calendar year is a tax resident and is required to pay US taxes on their worldwide income. From the IRS perspective, it doesn't matter if that income is paid in the US or elsewhere. If an H-1B worker is given a living allowance, it is treated the same by the IRS as any other US resident. In some cases, H-1B workers pay higher taxes than a US citizen because they are not entitled to certain deductions (eg. head of household deduction amongst many others). Some H-1B workers are not eligible to receive any Social Security or Medicare benefits unless they are able to adjust status to that of permanent resident.[3] However, if their country of citizenship has a tax agreement with the United States, they are able to collect the Social Security they've earned even if they don't gain permanent residency there. Such agreements are negotiated between the United States and other countries, typically those which have comparable standards of living and public retirement systems
[edit] Taxation status of H-1B workers
H-1B workers are legally required to pay the same taxes as any other US resident, including Social Security and Medicare.[2] Any person who spends more than 183 days in the US in a calendar year is a tax resident and is required to pay US taxes on their worldwide income. From the IRS perspective, it doesn't matter if that income is paid in the US or elsewhere. If an H-1B worker is given a living allowance, it is treated the same by the IRS as any other US resident. In some cases, H-1B workers pay higher taxes than a US citizen because they are not entitled to certain deductions (eg. head of household deduction amongst many others). Some H-1B workers are not eligible to receive any Social Security or Medicare benefits unless they are able to adjust status to that of permanent resident.[3] However, if their country of citizenship has a tax agreement with the United States, they are able to collect the Social Security they've earned even if they don't gain permanent residency there. Such agreements are negotiated between the United States and other countries, typically those which have comparable standards of living and public retirement systems
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Raju
05-24 12:21 PM
If you go through the transcripts of his shows over the last 4-5 years, he is stauncly against everything foriegn, period. He hates H1-Bs, absolutely hates indian call centers , hates cheap chinese goods, hates illegal aliens ... he is not just anti-immigrant, he is xenophobic.
The reason he is so popular is because he appeals to populist sentiments .. its the easiest thing in the world to blame foreigners when the economy is bad and believe everything will be hunky-dory if they are kicked out.
I used to watch his show for 2 yrs. This is what exactly he wants to do. I agree 200% to the above passage. He wants to build walls for everything, technolgy, foriegn goods and Immigrants(legal and illegel). I am surprised that he is a harvard graduate. He want to send 15 mil illegals out, which is 10% of the whole work force. The current unemployment in this coutry is under 5% which the best in the world. How is he going to fill the jobs that were left behind by the illegals...
The reason he is so popular is because he appeals to populist sentiments .. its the easiest thing in the world to blame foreigners when the economy is bad and believe everything will be hunky-dory if they are kicked out.
I used to watch his show for 2 yrs. This is what exactly he wants to do. I agree 200% to the above passage. He wants to build walls for everything, technolgy, foriegn goods and Immigrants(legal and illegel). I am surprised that he is a harvard graduate. He want to send 15 mil illegals out, which is 10% of the whole work force. The current unemployment in this coutry is under 5% which the best in the world. How is he going to fill the jobs that were left behind by the illegals...
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nojoke
04-08 03:38 PM
Read my previous post. You have insulted every member by comparing their intelligence with someone who was so dumb enough to buy something beyond his reach. BTW thanks for taking the pain to google out the fruit picker�s story. This is my last post for you guys. You go ahead and discourage people while I will take some rest in my house.
I am not here to pick a fight. I am showing what is happening in the housing and where it is heading. When I saw all those recomendations of "go ahead and buy" and the rosy pictures you guys are presenting, I wanted to show the other side and what is in store for the future of this economy. NAR has destroyed the economy with slogans like "they are not making any more land". They are liers to the core. Imagine these guys making 300K plus ...and they certainly have incentive to lie and mislead.
I am not here to pick a fight. I am showing what is happening in the housing and where it is heading. When I saw all those recomendations of "go ahead and buy" and the rosy pictures you guys are presenting, I wanted to show the other side and what is in store for the future of this economy. NAR has destroyed the economy with slogans like "they are not making any more land". They are liers to the core. Imagine these guys making 300K plus ...and they certainly have incentive to lie and mislead.
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apt7
05-16 12:04 AM
What will happen to the hundereds and thousands of consultants working in firms like Mircosoft, IBM, JP Morgan, Oracle etc and all the other big and small firms? I bet there will be no more BAUs (business as usual) in the all those companies..
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Macaca
02-25 07:50 PM
Please post (with URL i.e. verifiable) Lou Dobbs lies. He is believed by some persons in other immigration forums. Thanks.
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unitednations
07-09 11:06 AM
I read these desperate cases where a whole lot of IV'ers try to help with their best understanding of Immigration Law. Including veterans like UN and others who have been through hoops, successes and failures in assesing a particular case.
My personal understanding is that NO 2 two cases are identical for USCIS and there is a term "Officer Discretion" which comes into play a lot. This Discretion is more positive to the applicant when a case is prepared prefessionaly and a little negative when done without care.
Also even though the individual affected tries to provide the information to get the best solution does not mean he/she has provided 100% information based on facts of the case. There could be something missed out easily just because that does not ring the bell for the person submitting the information or simply because the information is too private and not appropriate on a public forum.
My point is these forums are not meant for a realistic solution to a complicated issue like the one on this thread. Please get a good attorney and that does not only mean Murthy or Khanna. There are tons of attorneys available both good and competent and affordable and who may have a solution which appeals USCIS officer.
Best of Luck.
This is very correct. Usually; when people post an issue they are only giving 20% of the story and there are more twists and turns that they are not disclosing and in our over zealousness to advise/post; we go through various scenarios.
In my experience; uscis does not by default give a person a tough time. However; if there is a history (ie., denials); then they seem to go a little further into it.
In my own case; when I had to go to local office interview; the list of documents that the officer asked for me was pretty extensive and basically outside the law. However; he still asked for those things (ie., tax returns; w2's from 1999 through 2006 (as an example)); He was really reaching in what he asked for. If I didn't have these things; then there is a possibility that a person may fake some of these things and then uscis tries to trap you. However; 245k; ead, etc.; future job offer has a lot of protections for us. It's never good to fake things; especially when most of the time it isn't necessary.
My personal understanding is that NO 2 two cases are identical for USCIS and there is a term "Officer Discretion" which comes into play a lot. This Discretion is more positive to the applicant when a case is prepared prefessionaly and a little negative when done without care.
Also even though the individual affected tries to provide the information to get the best solution does not mean he/she has provided 100% information based on facts of the case. There could be something missed out easily just because that does not ring the bell for the person submitting the information or simply because the information is too private and not appropriate on a public forum.
My point is these forums are not meant for a realistic solution to a complicated issue like the one on this thread. Please get a good attorney and that does not only mean Murthy or Khanna. There are tons of attorneys available both good and competent and affordable and who may have a solution which appeals USCIS officer.
Best of Luck.
This is very correct. Usually; when people post an issue they are only giving 20% of the story and there are more twists and turns that they are not disclosing and in our over zealousness to advise/post; we go through various scenarios.
In my experience; uscis does not by default give a person a tough time. However; if there is a history (ie., denials); then they seem to go a little further into it.
In my own case; when I had to go to local office interview; the list of documents that the officer asked for me was pretty extensive and basically outside the law. However; he still asked for those things (ie., tax returns; w2's from 1999 through 2006 (as an example)); He was really reaching in what he asked for. If I didn't have these things; then there is a possibility that a person may fake some of these things and then uscis tries to trap you. However; 245k; ead, etc.; future job offer has a lot of protections for us. It's never good to fake things; especially when most of the time it isn't necessary.
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alterego
11-15 07:17 AM
That has been Lou's view all along. Yet I doubt its sincerity, it follows along the Numbersusa ploy that if you make things hard enough first, all but the ones with the strongest roots will leave. Hence they will say enforcement first but then once that is done you will hear all the restrictionist agenda. In fact there has been some stepped up security at the border recently.
The policy of all these anti immigration groups is quite clear, divide and rule. They have only tepid and restrictionist at best arguments against Skilled Immigration , and for those of you in the IT field I want to remind you that skilled immigration does not mean just IT. Restrictionist groups are aware that most of america will not stand for their agenda and corporate america will steamrolll their lobbying might. Hence the play all these tricks. YOu should have seen the pathetec defence of the loss of some hardliners in the recent election that Bay Buchanan(Pats wife) gave on Lou Dobbs last night. Their end objective is the same, keep immigration as low as possible.
Last Night Lou was visibly concerned that there would be something cooking in the Lame duck session.
The AILA/Compete america is for sure trying to get atleast a H1b expansion and is pushing hard. I am happy to see that they are also pushing for some sort of EB provisions for their permanent employees also.
The policy of all these anti immigration groups is quite clear, divide and rule. They have only tepid and restrictionist at best arguments against Skilled Immigration , and for those of you in the IT field I want to remind you that skilled immigration does not mean just IT. Restrictionist groups are aware that most of america will not stand for their agenda and corporate america will steamrolll their lobbying might. Hence the play all these tricks. YOu should have seen the pathetec defence of the loss of some hardliners in the recent election that Bay Buchanan(Pats wife) gave on Lou Dobbs last night. Their end objective is the same, keep immigration as low as possible.
Last Night Lou was visibly concerned that there would be something cooking in the Lame duck session.
The AILA/Compete america is for sure trying to get atleast a H1b expansion and is pushing hard. I am happy to see that they are also pushing for some sort of EB provisions for their permanent employees also.
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chintu25
08-07 10:59 AM
CIRCUIT
Bhai, Bapu ne bola tha ke kabhi jhoot nehin bolna mangta hai. Apun aaj se kabhi jhoot nehin bolega Bhai.
MUNNA BHAI
Aye Circuit, woh Sunita ka baap aya hai terayko dund rehla hai.
CIRCUIT
Bhai usko bolo apun gaon gaya hai, kheti karneko.
MUNNA BHAI
Par Circuit, abhi to tu bola kabhi jhoot nehin bolega.
CIRCUIT
Bhai, apun jhoot nehin bolega, par tum to bol sakta hai na.
:D
MAMU
Bhai, apnay ko char mahinay mein Tamil sikhna padega. Kuch upay batao.
MUNNA BHAI
Kannada kyun, aur char mahinay ka kya chakkar hai?
MAMU
Meinay ek Tamil baccha adopt kiya hai, aur woh char mahinay mein bolne lagay ga.
:D
CIRCUIT
Oye Short Circuit yeh light bulb pe baap ka naam kya likh raha hai?
SHORT CIRCUIT
Apun baap ka naam roshan kar rehle hai.
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Bhai, Bapu ne bola tha ke kabhi jhoot nehin bolna mangta hai. Apun aaj se kabhi jhoot nehin bolega Bhai.
MUNNA BHAI
Aye Circuit, woh Sunita ka baap aya hai terayko dund rehla hai.
CIRCUIT
Bhai usko bolo apun gaon gaya hai, kheti karneko.
MUNNA BHAI
Par Circuit, abhi to tu bola kabhi jhoot nehin bolega.
CIRCUIT
Bhai, apun jhoot nehin bolega, par tum to bol sakta hai na.
:D
MAMU
Bhai, apnay ko char mahinay mein Tamil sikhna padega. Kuch upay batao.
MUNNA BHAI
Kannada kyun, aur char mahinay ka kya chakkar hai?
MAMU
Meinay ek Tamil baccha adopt kiya hai, aur woh char mahinay mein bolne lagay ga.
:D
CIRCUIT
Oye Short Circuit yeh light bulb pe baap ka naam kya likh raha hai?
SHORT CIRCUIT
Apun baap ka naam roshan kar rehle hai.
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
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anilsal
11-12 11:59 PM
Now i remember about my Indian friend who passed through the "H1B turned GC holder" route bad mouthing about US h1 policy ( that time there was an attempt to hike the quota by some 20000 and he was deeply upset by that ).
It is not about your Indian friend alone. There are a large number of people who have got GC/Citizenship via some form of immigration (mostly family) and are bad mouthing H1B holders/quota etc. In addition, since some of them run businesses, guess which party they love. ;)
It is not about your Indian friend alone. There are a large number of people who have got GC/Citizenship via some form of immigration (mostly family) and are bad mouthing H1B holders/quota etc. In addition, since some of them run businesses, guess which party they love. ;)
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mrow
07-07 10:34 PM
Don't waste your time there. I too had applied for EAD renewal in March, and it expired in the end of June. Contacted the local office but they said they could'nt do anything. Got my 485 approval 2 weeks before our EADs expired! I had even contacted a senator out of desparation when the USCIS had pushed the EAD processing back by 6 months and with a mortgage payment, baby and with no unemployment benefits that would have been hell. Your best bet at this point is your senator and a good attorney. Don't worry about the attorney fees - it will be worth it in the end. Good luck, I feel for you.
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TomPlate
09-26 12:31 PM
I like Mccain to be the president. Based on his experience and his involvement for the country.
Also Mccain is a great candidate for us.
Also Mccain is a great candidate for us.
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sk2006
06-05 03:09 PM
Renters will never understand why owning a home is better than renting as thus they will continue to make arguments to continue doing so. And I'm sure that giving 1 example or 100 examples will not change your mind in the slightest. Which is why you will always be paying owners like me for a roof to live under.
All your logic works in healthy (Not Bubble) housing market when rents are comparable to mortgage.
In bubble times rents were much lower. Infact in my area for a comparable unit mortgage(30year fixed) was about 4 times the rent. So how would that pay somebody's mortgage?
(Dont tell me owning on ARMs with teaser rates)
Rent would not even cover the monthly payment, forget property tax(appx 2%) and maintenance.
All your logic works in healthy (Not Bubble) housing market when rents are comparable to mortgage.
In bubble times rents were much lower. Infact in my area for a comparable unit mortgage(30year fixed) was about 4 times the rent. So how would that pay somebody's mortgage?
(Dont tell me owning on ARMs with teaser rates)
Rent would not even cover the monthly payment, forget property tax(appx 2%) and maintenance.
engineer
01-03 12:31 AM
Writer, Shuja Nawaz
http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about
Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan�s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government�s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India�s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a �limited war�.
For Pakistan, there is no concept of �limited war�. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian�s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the �poison pill� defence of its nuclear weapons.
The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country�s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan�s attack on seven major Indian cities:
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that �could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.� More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)
http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about
Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan�s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government�s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India�s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a �limited war�.
For Pakistan, there is no concept of �limited war�. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian�s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the �poison pill� defence of its nuclear weapons.
The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country�s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan�s attack on seven major Indian cities:
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that �could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.� More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)
Waitingnvain
01-30 10:24 PM
I have been trying to access the report that Lou Dobbs alluded to in his program. Did anybody find the report. In any case we should counter his BS with facts and send it to CNN.
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